This year, as it seems clear that many people will win by Danny Boyle Slumdog Millonaire but I think the same way that it will not Slumdog Millonaire win the Oscar for Best Film not win the Oscar for Best Director prize going to stop at The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
David Fincher has many good films and is probably one of the best directors of the past 10 years. Last year there was a current that wanted to win this year by Zodiac and it could be rewarding. A part of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Fincher has made Seven, which revitalized the genre of psychopaths and Fight Club, film considered by many people worship.
With these factors and taking into account the higher number of nominations The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millonaire really a movie seems more inclined to the Golden Globes not the Oscars, I think that David Fincher will win the Oscar. Although clear if Danny Boyle would not win any surprises.
The other candidates do not believe that they have no option other than Gus Van Sant whether the night was a surprise and Milk was the most awarded, in my view, virtually impossible. For Stephen Daldry he spent time with Biily Elliot and The Hours, and Ron Howard has an Oscar for A Beautiful Mind.